Poker Outs – Calculating your Number of Outs in Poker

This tutorial is designed to help you understand exactly what poker outs are, and how to quickly calculate them without an excessive amount of math. In addition, we’ve provided a chart below that you can print out and use for a quick reference while playing.

What are outs? An "out" is simply a card that will win the hand for you if it comes on the turn or river. For example, let’s assume you hold two spades in your hand, and the board also contains two spades. At this point you have four cards to a flush. Assuming you have no pair and your opponent does, you will need to make your flush on the river in order to win the hand. All the remaining spades in the deck will give you a flush and will win the hand for you. Thus, those spades are considered your "outs". There are 13 spades in the deck, 2 of which are in your hand, and 2 of which are on the board. Therefore, there are 9 spades left in the deck, leaving you with 9 outs.

Printable Poker Outs Chart (Opens in a new window)

So how do I calculate my number of outs?

You can calculate your number of outs by making a rough guess at what your opponent holds, then figuring out what cards you would need in order to win.

For example, let’s say you have K8. The board is AK4, giving you middle pair. If you assume your opponent holds an Ace, you would need to catch another King, or an eight (for two pair). There are two remaining kings, and three remaining eights in the deck. Thus, you have 5 outs.

OK, so I understand poker outs, how do I calculate the odds of hitting one of those outs?

Calculating the odds of hitting an out in a single drawn card is fairly simple. Take the number of outs and divide it by the number of unknown cards. For example, the odds of you hitting one of your 5 outs on the turn would be expressed as 5/47, or .106 (10.6%).

However, calculating the odds of hitting one of your outs with 2 cards to come is a bit more complicated. In order to calculate this, you have to use a bit of basic algebra, and work backwards from the odds of *not* hitting your outs.

Example:
Odds of not hitting an out on the turn: (42/47) = .893 (89.3%)
Odds of not hitting an out on the river: (41/46) = .891 (89.1%)
Odds of not hitting on either: .893 * .891 = .795 (79.5%)
Therefore, the odds of hitting on either the turn or the river: 100%-79.5% = 20.5%

Are you kidding me? How on earth am I supposed to figure that out while I’m sitting at the table? There must be an easier way.

As a matter of fact, there is. They're called the rule of 4, and the rule of 2.

To calculate the likelihood that you will hit one of your outs, you multiply your number of outs by 2 for drawing a single card (such as only the turn OR the river). To figure the odds for both the turn and the river, you simply multiply by 4. The result will be very close to the rough percentage of likelihood that one of your outs will surface.

In the example above, we determined that with 5 outs, and one card to be dealt, you had about a 10.6 percent chance of hitting one of your outs. As you can see, if you multiply your 5 outs by 2, you get 10, or 10%.

If you have two cards left to be dealt, you multiply (5 x 4), and end up with 20. The actual percentage from above is 20.5, but for the purposes of determining what your rough chances of winning are, the numbers are certainly close enough.

NOTE: When you start to get above 15 outs, the results become a bit more skewed. However, it’s rare that this will ever pose a problem since you’ll be a clear favorite with that many outs.

Conclusion

As you can see, calculating your number of outs is fairly simple once you get the hang of it. Using the rules of 4 and 2, you can quickly gauge where you’re at after the flop and make better decisions.

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